Firearm ownership has been associated with an increased risk of various adverse health-related firearm incidents, including homicide and suicide. However, studying the causal impact of firearm availability on firearm incidents is challenging due to confounding factors that can affect the association between firearm ownership and firearm incidents.

• Confounding factors can be measured or unmeasured, making it difficult to study the causal relationship between firearm availability and firearm incidents.
• Measuring the impact of firearm availability on firearm incidents at the geographical level can also be challenging.

When changes in firearm availability are random and natural, they can create an opportunity to study the impact of firearm availability without the confounding factors that can affect the association between firearm ownership and firearm incidents.

Event Studies: A Natural Experiment

A natural experiment can account for measured and unmeasured confounding factors when changes in firearm availability are arbitrary and random.

For example, after the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in December 2012, an estimated 3 million additional firearms were sold in the United States. These sales were associated with an estimated 57–66 additional accidental shooting deaths.

This study used an event study design to analyze the impact of firearm availability on firearm incidents. The study accounted for measured and unmeasured confounding factors, making it possible to study the causal relationship between firearm availability and firearm incidents.

Deer Hunting Seasons as a Natural Experiment

Deer hunting seasons offer a unique opportunity to study the impact of immediate changes in firearm availability on firearm incidents.

The US Fish and Wildlife Service estimated that 11.5 million hunters dedicated 135 million days to hunting big game in 2022. Deer hunting seasons vary by state, but they generally begin in fall or early winter, and are temporally accompanied by increases in sales of handguns and long guns nationwide.

The study hypothesized that the short-term increase in firearm availability and use at the beginning of deer hunting season might affect hunting-related firearm injuries, while non-hunting-related firearm incidents (such as suicide and violent crime) might also rise as more firearms are purchased and present within the state.

Methodology

The study used a quasi-experimental event study design to measure rates of different types of firearm incidents in the time period surrounding the beginning of deer hunting season in 10 US states.

1. The study analyzed the impact of firearm availability on firearm incidents using an event study design.
2. The study accounted for measured and unmeasured confounding factors, making it possible to study the causal relationship between firearm availability and firearm incidents.
3. The study used data from the US Fish and Wildlife Service and other sources to estimate firearm sales and hunting-related firearm incidents.

The study found that the short-term increase in firearm availability and use at the beginning of deer hunting season was associated with an increase in hunting-related firearm injuries. However, the study also found that non-hunting-related firearm incidents (such as suicide and violent crime) did not significantly increase during this time period.

Highlights

The study highlights the potential benefits of using event studies to study the impact of firearm availability on firearm incidents.

The study also emphasizes the importance of considering the potential effects of firearm availability on non-hunting-related firearm incidents.

By using event studies, researchers can better understand the impact of firearm availability on firearm incidents and develop strategies to reduce the risk of firearm-related incidents.

“By examining the impact of firearm availability on firearm incidents, researchers can gain a better understanding of the causal relationship between firearm ownership and firearm incidents.